Latest Prediction for 2014 elections

Uttar Pradesh
BJP - 35
Congress - 8
SP - 20
BSP - 17

BJP will find it very difficult to cross the 35 mark as their organization structure fell apart after being out of power for nearly 2 decades. Even if they have support not sure if they can convert it to votes. This in itself is a tall order considering the fact that they have only 47 MLAs (12%).

Assam

One of the states where every pollster is agreeing that Congress will do well

Congress - 10
BJP + - 3

Punjab

Congress - 8
BJP + - 5

SAD is having a huge anti incumbency and that should really benefit Congress and the fact that they had some strong candidates also helps.

Tamil Nadu

BJP+ - 3
ADMK - 26
DMK - 10

Even though the alliance that BJP had formed looks formidable on paper they cannot win many seats. 3 is the max that they can win.

Andhra Pradesh

Congress messed up big time with the Telengana and the alliance/merger with TRS. However, there will be goodwill in the Telengana region which will help them win few seats.

Congress - 12
YSRC - 10
BJP + TDP - 12
TRS - 8

Chattisgarh

Raman Singh scrapped through in the assembly. He will do slightly better in the LS

BJP - 7
Congress - 4

Bihar

BJP - 10
LJP - 2
RJD - 10
Congress - 5
JDU - 13

Even though people are saying JDU will have huge reversals don't think that will happen. With a 3 way contest expect all 3 combos to get almost equal seats. BJP best case can get 3 more seats

Haryana

Vadra factor will play here.

BJP - 6
Congress - 4

INLD will get some of the anti incumbency votes. BJP at best can get 1 more seat. AAP can also play a spoiler here for BJP

Karnataka

Congress - 20
BJP - 6
JDS - 2

Best case for BJP is to get 4 more seats.

Kerala

LDF is still in ruins which only helps UDF

UDF - 14
LDF - 6

Odisha

BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2

Gujarat

BJP - 22
Congress - 4

Gujarat has to vote for Modi. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the 4 seats that Congress wins is Gandhinagar, Modi is known for such things.

Maharashtra

BJP - 12
Congress - 14
SS - 10
NCP - 12

I strongly feel that MNS will still play the spoiler for the SS + BJP alliance even though they are primarily fighting only the SS. Best case for BJP is to win 5 more seats

Madhya Pradesh

Some strong candidates will ensure that Congress gets to double digits.

BJP - 19
Congress - 10

BJP can at best get 3 more seats

Rajasthan

This will be huge win for BJP like the assembly elections

BJP - 20
Congress - 5

Delhi

AAP - 2
Congress - 2
BJP - 3

Goa

BJP - 2

J&K

PDP - 1
Congress - 3
NC - 2

Himachal

Slogans like Dil Mange more will not work here

BJP - 2
Congress - 2

Uttarakhand

BJP - 2
Congress - 3

The rehabilitation post the floods will cause damage to Congress. BJP can win 1 more seat at best case

Tirupura

Left - 2

Sikkim

Congress - 1

Nagaland 

BJP+ - 1

Mizoram

Congress - 1

Meghalaya

Congress - 2

Manipur

Congress - 2

Arunachal 

Congress - 2

Union Territories

Congress - 3
BJP - 3

West Bengal

TMC - 25
Left - 12
Congress - 5

Jharkhand

BJP - 5
Congress - 6
RJD - 1
JMM - 2

BJP at best can win 2 more seats

Total
BJP+SS+SAD+TDP+LJP = 195
Congress+NC+RJD+NCP+JMM = 179
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Left - 20
DMK - 10
ADMK - 26
TMC - 25
YSRC - 10
JDU - 13
JDS - 2
BJD - 15
TRS - 8
AAP - 2
PDP - 1

How can BJP get to power?
BJP+ at best can add another 15 seats which will take it to 210 seats.

Another 62 -
TMC is completely ruled out with the recent utterances by TMC and BJP
SP is also ruled out
BSP is possible ally which will give them 17 seats
JDU and JDS are ruled out
Left is completely ruled out
BJD is a possible ally which will give another 15 seats
YSRC/TRS cannot be an ally as long as TDP is there in NDA
PDP is a possible ally with 1 more seat
Either ADMK or DMK could be a possible ally which will give them 25 or 10 seats.

Even then they will not be able to reach 272 unless they get few from the UPA like NCP or JMM or RLD. RJD and NC won't move over to NDA

Elections Update - Back after a break

Back after a short hiatus. Things have been pretty hectic at work. 

Tamil Nadu

The new front in TN (NDA) on paper might look strong. However, all key parties in it namely DMDK, PMK, MDMK are all on the decline. On paper people might claim that they have 22% vote shore but that was 5 years back. Things have changed and I am sure they will not cross 15% on all and maybe in one or two seats they will come second. Don't think they will have a big impact. 

DMK is a house divided and we have seen Alagiri causing some damage to their prospects the last time he was sent out of the party. Not sure if that will happen this time also. Even otherwise their prospects look bleak

AAP is a joker in the park. Don't think they will get even their deposits back except probably in Kanyakumari where Udayakumar from the Kudangulam agitation group is standing. 

Congress might do well due to individual’s capacity. Like Thirunavukarusu or Mani Shankar Aiyar might do well (don't think they will win though). Chidambaram could have done well if he had contested, but don't think Karthi will even come second. 

Primarily because of the opposition and the social welfare measures that ADMK government has been taking in the last 3 years I am pretty sure that ADMK will win close to 30 seats if not more. 

National Updates

Advani didn't want to contest from Gandhinagar because he doesn't trust Modi and fears he will ensure his defeat. No other reason. 

Arun Jaitley can be bit more polished in his chamcha to Modi. When a senior politician is sideline things can be done in a more dignified manner. 

In the current BJP only what Modi wants gets done. Others have absolutely no say. 

BJP seems to creating more troubles for themselves. The way they handled Advani/Jaswant issue or the Muthalik issue. It is really funny when they can definitely be the single largest party they are causing troubles for themselves. I repeat I said they can be single largest party not that they will form the government. 

Maharashtra - BJP/Shiv Sena combine could have done well but the way they had dealings with MNS will ensure they don't even get to half way mark in Maharashtra. 

Congress should really be happy with all the self goals from the NDA which will only help them especially in the states where they are fighting only against each other. 

Telengana issue seems to have backfired big time on Congress. They couldn't get the merger or alliance with TRS, which will only split the votes in that region. They had written off Seemandhra when they took the decision to split the state. 

AAP at the national level will hardly cross single digit. Except in Delhi don't think they will win a single seat outside (disclaimer - I didn't expect them to win so many seats in Delhi). 

Opinion polls all seem to give BJP more than 200 seats which doesn't factor in the individuals who are contesting. For eg, in MP I don't think a Scindia, Kamalnath, etc. will lose. There are so many such leaders from Congress who are sure to win, which will ensure the numbers don't match what the opinion polls project.

Will try to give my revised projections in the next few days.  

Coalition Contradictions

From the year 1996 India as a country has been seeing coalition governments at the center. No one has been able to get absolute majority. Any party which gets 160+ is see as victorious, unless it is led by a certain Narendra Modi (who cannot find new friends to take him past the half way mark).

What I would like to talk about today is list out some of the contradictions in the coalitions that are formed.

Tamil Nadu - TN is a strange example where we have had Left and Congress fighting elections together even thought they oppose each other every where else including the neighboring Kerala where they lead the two large coalitions in the state. We have had DMK a so called revolutionary party allying with BJP during the 1999 elections. DMK leader who calls an Hindu a thief and allies with a predominantly Hindu party. TMC the party which was formed opposing the Narasimha Rao's decision to ally with ADMK formed an alliance with the same ADMK in 1999.

Kerala - We have had coalition governments for a long time in the state. It is really peculiar where we see splinter groups of congress in the left alliance and the other way around also.

J&K - PDP whose leader Mehbooba Mufti who doesn't mind questioning Indian government's authority in J&K allies with a nationalist BJP. We also had the NC which derives its support from the muslims in Kashmir allying with BJP (they were mutually exclusive which helped them in winning though).

Maharashtra - We had the NCP which was formed against the foreigner's influence (read Sonia Gandhi) in the Congress party allying with the same Congress.

Puducherry - We have the NR Congress which runs the government with the support of Congress. NR Congress was formed when N Rangaswamy came out of the Congress.

Delhi - We have the AAP running the show with Congress's support, the very party which it claimed as untouchable.

In the upcoming elections 

BJP wants to ally with MDMK, PMK, etc. The two leading parties of TN have not shown any interest in allying with them. MDMK and PMK are known to be LTTE supporters and it will be fun to see Subramaniam Swamy (the new entrant of BJP) who is a known LTTE baiter sharing space together. MDMK has already said that the Sethusamuduram project has to be reassessed for the environmental issues.

BJP which has been claiming that they are clean and only Congress is corrupt also wants to ally with INLD led by Om Prakash Chouthala (who is currently in jail on corruption charges).

Congress is also not far behind, their VP wants to project a clean image but they are also harboring ambitions of allying with RJD led by Laloo Prasad (who is just out on bail after being convicted in one of the fodder scam cases).

Cliches when it comes to Coalitions

To justify all these contradictions the politicians have their own set of cliches

1) There are no permanent enemies or friends in politics
2) There are no untouchables in politics
3) This is just an election alliance and not based on ideology

The only thing that we have not seen is the Congress and BJP allying together somewhere or Left allying with BJP. Heard that left is keen on allying with a BJP splinter, so we might actually get to see that also.

As a famous Goundamani dialogue in a tamil movie "arasiyala edhu ellam satharanam appa"(everything goes in politics).. 

Review of the 2013 Assembly Elections and Expectations from AAP

This is a long overdue post on the review of the assembly elections. 

Madhya Pradesh : The result was as expected where Shivraj Chauhan has won the elections. BJP won 22 more seats than 2008. Fact that projection of Scindia was delayed was one of the main reason for Congress not able to make much of the anti-incumbency factor. This win should help BJP consolidate their position in the Lok Sabha elections. I had predicted that BJP and Congress will win 19 and 10 tickets in the Lok Sabha elections. I will stick with that position. 

Chattisgarh : To me personally this was also an expected result with Raman Singh winning the elections for BJP. BJP won 49 seats which was 1 lesser than 2008. Congress should feel bad they couldn't convert the sympathy after the Bastar incident into votes. This was a much closer election of the lot. I had predicted an 8/3 for BJP and Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. I would go ahead and change that to 7/4 for BJP and Congress

Mizoram : Lal Thanhawla won the election for the Congress. This was a consolation victory for Congress. As usual no one bothered about this election which is a shame. 

Rajasthan : More than anything this was a huge loss that would have hurted Congress the most. Not for the loss as such but for the margin. Congress won only 21 of the 199 seats. Everyone expected the Congress to lose even thought Gehlot had opened up the government coffers for populist measure in the last 2/2.5 years of his rule. Even that did not help him. I had predicted 13/12 for Congress and BJP but don't think that will happen. It will more like 8/17 for Congress and BJP. 

Delhi : This was a huge surprise to me. The Delhi Rape case and the Anna Hazare fast and the handling of these two by the government let to the frustration of the people. Delhi has one of the best infrastructure in the entire country which was thanks largely to Shiela Dixit but the above two incidents led to her loss. People wanted a change and AAP was able to convert those to votes for them. It is a while since we had any party form a government after their first elections. This was more of a vote against the central government than the state government. Congress should win 2 and BJP 2 and AAP 3 seats in the Delhi Lok Sabha elections. 

Expectations from AAP : Now that they have won the election and formed the government the expectations has risen a lot. They have to deliver on their promises. I hope they are not like Mamata Banerjee who has been useless as a Chief Minister. Binny issue will be closely watched but that seem to have been handled for now. Also there was huge difference between their election manifesto and the first speech that Kejriwal made after taking oath as CM. There were some tall promises made by AAP also like the 50% reduction in electricity charges, have to wait and watch how they deliver. Also they have taken a moral high ground on every issue but every action of theirs will be scrutinized. 

Isolation of Vaiko and the AAP phenomenon

I have successfully reached post # 50.

There is a Mullivaikal memorial that has been constructed near Thanjavur and there is a statue of Prabhakaran and his son in it. I am totally surprised that people have the guts to put up statues and posters of global terrorists. People should differentiate between support for Tamils in Sri Lanka and the LTTE. LTTE was and is a banned organization. It was responsible for the killing of many Tamil leaders even in Sri Lanka.

The TN government demolished the compound wall as it had encroached on the National Highways. Vaiko was very harsh on the TN Government. He said people will spit on Jayalalitha for destroying the wall. Was really surprised with the words that were used. With this he has completely ruled out the possibility of any alliance with ADMK. 

Vaiko has been very vocal in his support of the BJP in the last few days as I have mentioned in my earlier post. Knowing JJ it would be interesting to see what kind of pressure that she exerts on BJP to isolate Vaiko further. To BJP JJ is more valuable than a Vaiko, so they might give in and isolate him completely. He is already become a spent force in TN. Only advantage of anyone including Vaiko is the tireless campaign that he will do for the alliance. He is a great orator which will be useful in drawing crowds. However those have not translated to votes in the recent elections. Even if JJ doesn't exert any pressure on BJP or if BJP ignores her pressure, BJP & MDMK will not win any seats unless they form a very large alliance. With this election MDMK and Vaiko will head towards extinction. Same can be said about PMK also. 

Coming to the second item of discussion. Aam Admi Party. To me personally any party to come to power will need at least 4-5 elections. However, all opinion polls are claiming that AAP can even become a single largest party in their first election (It is completely another issue that no psephologist have a scientific method to translate the support to number of seats). Which is highly impossible. Once people start taking you seriously they will throw all kind of muck on you, which is what the Congress and BJP are doing now. Be it the funding issue or the abusive words used in a rally, everything is coming out because people are taking AAP seriously. How AAP will react to all this will reflect on the true character of this party. They abstained from television debates on the funding issue. That doesn't reflect well on them. 

The art of translating crowd in rallies to votes is not easy. You need to ensure every supporter of yours gets to the polling booth and votes. With AAP the support is mostly the higher middle class and middle class. The upper middle class and upper class are the people who generally don't get to the election booth to vote. Even if the opinion polls are really reflecting the true picture, the AAP will find it really difficult to get support translated to votes. That is my view. 

I will be very surprised if AAP wins more than 10 seats in AAP. 

New developments

Very short post, there are some suggestions that I had mentioned that BJP and Congress should do in the part 5 of my series on 2014 elections things are starting to fall in place. 

I had suggested that BJP should ally with JDS but apparently Deve Gowda is pitching his tent with the third front. The other alternative is for BJP to get back Yeddy into the team in Karnataka. Not sure how much positive effect it will have, have to watch out.. He was sent out of the party for his corruption and in desperation they are trying to bring him back, which can be exploited by the Congress. 

Congress and both are desperately wooing JJ in TN. She is playing hard to get. Apparently PC has spoken to her and Modi was desperate to meet her during his last visit to Chennai. JJ also has sent her ministers to attend a meeting which had PC heading it. She has clearly stated that she is going to wait till the elections are over before supporting anyone. Her ambitions are big for the two national parties to manage. 

There are lots of opinion polls which are predicting that AAP will do exceedingly well in Delhi, I would be surprised if they win more an handful of seats. Probably Yogeshwar Yadav conducting these surveys explains the reason for such high projections. 

The other interesting development is the 10 party alliance that has been formed in North East, will have to wait and see if they all fight the elections together. That will be a huge setback for BJP which would have been hoping to have AGP and NPF in their alliance. 

YSRC, even though there are statements that they might be open to both Congress and BJP, I would be surprised if they move wth BJP. Congress' best hopes in AP is to merge TRS with them and also get YSRC into an alliance post the elections. 

The semi finals as the 5 state assembly elections is touted will be keenly watched. Interesting times ahead. 

Interesting developments - Alliances

Very short post, there are some suggestions that I had mentioned that BJP and Congress should do in the part 5 of my series on 2014 elections things are starting to fall in place.

I had suggested that BJP should tie up with MDMK, PMK and other smaller parties. MDMK seems to be OK to tie up with BJP and in the recent rally Vaiko (the MDMK leader) was all praise for Vajpayee, clearly indicating his preference to go with BJP. Also BJP has apparently reached out to DMDK also.

I had also suggested that BJP should try to tie up with TDP as Chandrababu Naidu is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th place in the state. During his visit Naidu has met with Rajnath Singh and has clearly stated that he is ok to support BJP. The irony is that Naidu walked out of the NDA to reduce the loss of muslim votes. Naidu is desperate to gain some ground in the state, at least through the alliance with BJP.

I had also suggested that Congress should tie up with YSRC. Today Jaganmohan Reddy has been granted bail and I believe things will start moving towards a formal alliance (if not a merger).

Don't think the leading National parties are reading my blog, but at least my thoughts are same as what is actually happening on the ground. Next 8 months till elections will be interesting.

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 5

Concluding part of this series.

I had missed Goa, the total seats in Goa is 2 and both should go to BJP

Total Seats

BJP - 158 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD, NPF)
Congress - 187(includes NC, SDF)
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 24
BJD  - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
SP - 20
BSP - 17

If DMK is included with Congress they will get to 195. Will need another 77 more seats for absolute majority.

BJP with a total of 158 will require 114 seats.

Best Case scenarios for BJP

Even though as per my projections BJP is expected to win 158, what is the best case scenario for them?

1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 2 seats more
2) Assam with the alliance with AGP they can get 2 seats more
3) Punjab they can get a seat more
4) Uttarakhand they can get 3 seats more
5) Bihar they can get 2 seats more
6) Haryana they can get 3 seats more
7) Karnataka they can get 2 seats more
8) Gujarat they can get 2 seats more
9) Maharasthra they can get 10 seats more
10) MP they can get a seat more
11) Rajasthan they can get 4 seats more
12) Delhi they can get 3 seats more

If all the above happens then BJP will end up with 193 seats and still short by 79 seats. Where will they get those 79 seats from is the big question.

The problem with BJP is that it is not pan India present. In the following states they have no presence - West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Kerala. These four states constitute 143 seats. They will most likely not win even a single seat in these seats.

Only possible allies for them could be ADMK, MNS, TMC and TDP which will end them at 256 seats that is 16 seats short of majority. That should be manageable somehow.

Only if all the best case scenarios work out, they can get to form the Government. That is highly unlikely to happen. In case they are more than 30-40 seats short even after the above allies join them, then they will have to sacrifice Modi as he will not be acceptable to any other ally be it JDU/JDS/BSP/YSRC.

Best Case scenarios for Congress

Even though as per my projection Congress is expected to win 195 seats, what is the best case scenario for them?

1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 10 seats more
2) Tamil Nadu they can get 17 seats more by allying with DMDK and DMK
3) Andhra Pradesh get 17 seats more by allying with YSRC

If that happens they will end up with 239 seats. Where will they get those 33 seats from? I would say the following parties will be willing to support Congress

1) JDU with 21 seats
2) SP & BSP with 37 seats
3) RJD & LJP with 9 seats
4) JMM with 2 seats
5) Left might also consider supporting to keep the "communal BJP" out of power with their 24 seats
All that will take it to 289 seats and into simple majority.

Third Front Scenario

When both Congress and BJP don't get close to that 190+ mark. In case that happens, all permutations and combinations are possible and we will have 2 years of third front rule before we have another round of elections. Following people will be definitely staking claim Mulayam, Mayawati, Mamata, Jayalalitha & Nitish. We could also have a surprise candidate like a Naveen Patnaik who should be acceptable to a larger number of regional and left parties. Also read that Sharad Pawar is also keen to become PM.

What should BJP do now?

1) Get MNS into the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance which will help them give a good fight to the Congress/NCP alliance
2) Try to open their account in Tamil Nadu by forming an alliance with whatever parties are left out like PMK, MDMK, etc.
3) Form an alliance with the Gorkha groups in West Bengal and assure them of more powers (no state party will assure Gorkhas separate state) which might get them 2-3 seats.
4) Firm up the unofficial ties with JDS(BJP didn't contest the recent by polls and supported JDS instead) in Karnataka which might get them 5 more seats
5) Tie up with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Already he is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th position in the state after Congress/TRS/YSRC.
6) Tie up with PDP in J&K which can help them in getting couple of more seats

If you look at it, except MNS all other parties are in their wane and they are the only possible candidates for pre-poll alliances.

What should Congress do now?

1) Firm up an alliance with YSRC in Andhra
2) Firm up an alliance with DMK/DMDK in Tamil Nadu
3) Firm up an alliance with JDU in Bihar. In case he is not interested, then with RJD/LJP.
4) Spend lots of effort in West Bengal. Position themselves as the alternative to highly incompetent Mamata.

Possible candidates from Congress and BJP (other than Raga and Namo)

Strongly feel that Rahul Gandhi would like to have his own Manmohan Singh. The possible candidates
a) P Chidambaram - Who is known to be close to the Gandhi family and is generally acceptable to all communities (except probably someone in TN who doesn't like anyone from TN becoming a PM. Case in point GK Mopanar missing out in 1996)
b) Digvijay Singh - Highly unlikely as he is currently being sidelined in MP itself.
c) AK Antony - You will have another Mr Clean. Might not get the nod, as he will not be acceptable to the corporates
d) Sushilkumar Shinde - Possible if Congress wants to project a Dalit as a PM. However, his health is not good recently and that might go against him

As mentioned earlier, in case BJP is around 40 seats short of majority then they will be forced to sacrifice Namo. The possible candidates are
a) LK Advani - Don't discount the old man as yet. He will fancy his chances as he is now become more acceptable to guys like Nitish
b) Arun Jaitley/Sushma Swaraj - Both leaders of Opposition. Arun Jaitley is even postponed his becoming the President of BCCI to ensure he doesn't miss out on an opportunity to become the PM of the country
c) Shivraj Singh Chauhan - This guys has ambitions of becoming the PM. He will also win a 3rd term as CM this year. He is playing is cards well by positioning himself as all that Namo is not.
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With this I am concluding this series. Will write more about the elections as we get closer to May 2014.  

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 4

Fourth part of this series.

Uttar Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 80

The biggest state in terms of number of seats. Akilesh Yadav is at complete loss in handling the state. If there is one state that can be considered for partition it should be Uttar Pradesh. He has no clue of how to govern, with all the pullings from the stalwarts of the party including his uncles and dad. There have been so many riots in the last 1 year and the law and order is in a mess.

I strongly feel the Modi effect will be felt highly in Uttar Pradesh and that will help BJP a lot. With Amit Shah being made responsible for the state, things have started moving fast. BJP will gain heavily if they can consolidate the Hindu votes which they had lost a bit to Mayawati. She was smart in creating a social alliance between Brahmins and Dalits (which was unthinkable sometime back) to win a huge majority in the previous assembly elections. Brahmin votes have now more or less moved to BJP and she will definitely retain her Dalit vote base.

The VHP's plans for a Kosh Yatra which was stopped by the Akilesh government and now the riots in Muzzafar nagar all will help BJP in consolidating the Hindu votes.  What is to be seen is if the anger among the muslim community against the Samajwadi party in the wester UP (after the recent riots) spread to other parts of the state and will really cause their votes to move away from SP.

Sad part is there is too much politics with religion in this state. BJP getting more hindu words is a given. Who gets the muslim votes is what will decide who will receive how many seats here.

Congress is the joker in the pack. It stunned everyone by winning 20 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. Don't think they will be able to repeat that feat unless muslims vote en-masse, which is highly unlikely to happen.

My Prediction

BJP - 35
SP - 20
BSP - 17
Congress - 8

Union Territories(except Delhi)

Total Lok Sabha seats  : 6

My prediction

BJP - 3
Congress - 3

Tirupara

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

CPM - 2

Sikkim

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

SDF - 1 (this will be part of the congress alliance)


Nagaland

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)

Mizoram

Total Lok Sabha seats - 1

My Prediction

Congress - 1

Meghalaya

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

NPF -1 (this will be part of the BJP alliance)
Congress - 1

Manipur

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Arunachal Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha seats - 2

My Prediction

Congress - 2

Assam

Total Lok Sabha seats - 14

Tarun Gogoi has currently in his third term as Chief Minister and I feel the anti-incumbency will play a part in this election. The AGP is likely to tie up with BJP again.

My Prediction

Congress - 7
AGP/BJP - 7

The last part of this series will have my overall observations and the total seats that each party will get.

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 3

Third part of this series.

Punjab

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 13

Congress messed up a golden opportunity in the assembly election in 2012. They should have easily won that which would helped in carrying the momentum to the Lok Sabha elections. That being said, it would be a close contest between SAD/BJP alliance and Congress. Expect SAD/BJP to get majority of the seats.

My Prediction

SAD/BJP - 8
Congress - 5

Tamil Nadu

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 39

Being part of this state, my analysis will be in more detail.

Amma unavagam and pannai pasumai nugarvor kutturavu kadai (basically amma's kitchen & amma's farm fresh) are a huge hit with the public. People are able to have lunch & breakfast at less than 20 rupees is helping them to save money. Many people have stopped cooking lunch and breakfast at homes. Now that dinners(chapathi) is also getting added it will help establish JJ's social credentials.

The electricity, bus charge, milk charge increases that the government implemented at the beginning of its tenure is accepted as the new norm now. The power situation has also improved a lot. Even the industries are now getting regular power.

In terms of negatives there are still daily murders happening in Chennai, which is surprisingly not controlled. JJ known for a strong hold on the law and order has still not handled this.

People have realized that Vijayakanth is useless. He has lost all the charisma that he had after the incidents in the assembly and also the way he talks. Tamil people like their politicians to be politically correct, which he has not exhibited so far.

DMK is in trouble times because of the sibling rivalry. With the Congress supporting Kanimozhi for the RS seat they both will, in all likelihood, contest the elections together.

Vijayakanth has been saying that he will not join a DMK alliance, we will have to wait and watch what happens.

BJP is non-existant here. Modi mania might get them few more votes but will not help them win a seat.

In case the elections are contested as per current alliances - ADMK with left and DMK with Congress and DMDK alone.

My prediction

ADMK/Left - 29
DMK/Congress - 10 (Congress will get 2 of the 10)

JJ has been saying that she wants to contest the elections alone, but in case DMDK joins Congress and DMK then she will be forced to change her stance. DMDK/Congress/DMK alliance will be very formidable. Then JJ will have to take MDMK and PMK also into the alliance. If this happens then

My prediction

ADMK/Left/PMK/MDMK - 12
Congress/DMDK/DMK - 27

In case Congress forms an alliance with DMDK and DMK is left alone then

My prediction

ADMK/Left - 29
Congress/DMDK - 5
DMK - 5

As we don't know about future alliances, we will go with the first prediction based on the current alliances for now when we do the National predictions.

Uttarakhand

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 5

With Congress winning the recent assembly elections they should ideally carry the momentum. However, the recent floods and the rehabilitation might tilt the scales either way. Still will give Congress the upper hand.

My prediction

Congress - 4
BJP - 1

West Bengal

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42

Bengalis are known for being smart. Mamata Banerjee has been a disaster as CM. Congress is not at all strong in West Bengal. They had a golden opportunity in strengthening the party as soon as Mamata left the UPA alliance. They should have gone all out in taking to the streets and protesting about all the missteps of the Mamata government. If they have done that, they could have projected themselves as an alternative to TMC and Left. Unfortunately they have not done that. Left has still not recovered from the loss that they suffered in the last assembly elections.

My prediction

TMC - 25
Congress - 5
Left - 12

This can change over the next 1 year if Mamata continues to perform in her own ways but with a weak opposition not sure who will gain from that.

Andhra Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 42

With the Telangana decision being made and the possible merger of TRS with the Congress they might win a considerable number of seats in that region which has 17 seats. Jagan Mohan Reddy should do well, thanks to the goodwill that his father had created by all his social development schemes and freebies. People will vote for him just for his father rather than considering the money that he has swindled. TDP is almost dead and BJP is also not existent much here.

My prediction

Congress - 20
YSRC - 15
TDP - 7

Total from Part 1, 2 & 3

BJP - 109 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD)
Congress - 160
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 22
BJD  - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15

Part 4 will cover UP, North east and all UTs (except Delhi).

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 2

Coming to the second part of my post

Chattisgarh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 11

Another state where the BJP and Congress fight it out head on. Raman singh has been doing an excellent job and is likely to win the assembly elections. That will help him in carrying the momentum into the Lok Sabha elections.

My prediction
BJP - 8
Congress - 3

Bihar

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 40

With the split between JDU and BJP, things are interesting in Bihar. If they had been together, they would swept Bihar like last time. Nitish is still doing a good job and should get more than 50% of the seats. Congress/JDU alliance can change the scenario completely, I expect the alliance will win more than 30 seats if they get together. Otherwise

My Prediction
JDU - 21
BJP - 8
RJD - 5
LJP - 3
Congress - 3

Haryana

Total Lok Sabha Seats : 10

With the wonders of the Son-in-law, congress will be impacted. Don't think by much though. Hooda is a good CM and has been doing a good job. Chauthala is in jail and BJP is not strong here.. So Congress should do well because of the weak opposition and strong CM.

My prediction
BJP - 1
Congress - 8
INLD - 1

Himachal Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 4

Congress won the assembly election last year, that momentum should carry them in HP. Still BJP is also strong here.

My prediction
BJP - 2
Congress - 2

Jammu & Kashmir

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 6

Congress & NC alliance will continue and should see them through in most of the seats. Omar Abdullah has started performing better after learning from the 2010 summer riots. They also have 2 senior ministers in the center who should help in winning. BJP might do well in Jammu though.

My prediction
Congress - 3
NC - 2
BJP - 1

Jharkhand

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 14

With the recent alliance between Congress RJD and JMM, they will be in a strong position. This alliance is also ruling the state currently. This state is also in need of some consistent governance, that will also tilt the scales in the favor of this alliance.

My prediction
Congress - 8
JMM - 2
RJD - 1
BJP - 3

Karnataka

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 28

With the Congress winning the recent assembly elections, they will carry the momentum into the Lok Sabha polls. BJP is in complete disarray. As PC mentioned in the Lok Sabha few days back they have to thank Ananth Kumar for getting rid of Yeddy from the party. With Yeddy still not back in BJP, their support base has diminished. JDS also is not in good state.

My prediction
Congress - 21
BJP - 4
JDS - 3

Kerala

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 20

One of the few states where the left will do well. With the current solar scam against the Chandy government its going to be difficult for Congress to win big like last time. Will be a 50-50 state as most of the time.

My prediction
Congress - 10
Left - 10

Odisha

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 21

After separating from the BJP alliance, Naveen Patnaik has strengthened his hold. He is completely unchallenged in the state. BJD should win majority of the seats.

My prediction
BJD - 15
BJP - 4
Congress - 2

Total for Part 1 & Part 2

BJP - 100
Congress - 124
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
NC - 2
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 10
BJD  - 15

My Views of what will happen in 2014 elections - Part 1

Let me start with the state of the possible PM Candidate

Gujarat

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 26

With Modi being projected as a possible PM Candidate, it should be pretty easy for him to sweep the state. Add to it the issue of no strong leader in Congress to take him on, it should be like 20+ seats out of the 26 in Gujarat for the BJP.

My prediction
BJP - 20
Congress - 6

Maharashtra

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 48

One of the key states with 48 seats. Strongly believe the BJP/Shiv Sena combine don't have their act together so Congress/NCP combo will win around 30 seats. What can tilt the stakes will be in Raj Thackeray joins the BJP/Shiv Sena combo that will make it a closer contest

My prediction
BJP/Shiv Sena - 16
Congress - 30
MNS - 2

Madhya Pradesh

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 29

Another state where the two major parties will be fighting each other. Shivraj Chauhan who also harbors dream of becoming the PM if Narendra Modi is not acceptable to all, is doing a good job and will win around 18-20 seats. Shivraj Chauhan is very smart in not going to town with his huge ambitions, but is playing his cards well.

My prediction
BJP - 19
Congress - 10

Rajasthan

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 25

Another state which is fought between the two leading parties. This should be a close fought states and will be a 50-50% between BJP & Congress. Assembly Election results will have an impact, whoever wins the assembly will have an upper hand in the Lok Sabha elections also.

My prediction
BJP - 12
Congress - 13

Delhi

Total Lok Sabha Seats - 7

Straight fight between Congress and BJP, congress will have an upper hand in the assembly elections also.

My prediction
BJP - 2
Congress - 5

Total for Part 1

BJP - 69
Congress - 64
MNS - 2

In all the head to head states looks like BJP will be doing better. Will come back with next part shortly.