Concluding part of this series.
I had missed Goa, the total seats in Goa is 2 and both should go to BJP
Total Seats
BJP - 158 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD, NPF)
Congress - 187(includes NC, SDF)
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 24
BJD - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
SP - 20
BSP - 17
If DMK is included with Congress they will get to 195. Will need another 77 more seats for absolute majority.
BJP with a total of 158 will require 114 seats.
Best Case scenarios for BJP
Even though as per my projections BJP is expected to win 158, what is the best case scenario for them?
1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 2 seats more
2) Assam with the alliance with AGP they can get 2 seats more
3) Punjab they can get a seat more
4) Uttarakhand they can get 3 seats more
5) Bihar they can get 2 seats more
6) Haryana they can get 3 seats more
7) Karnataka they can get 2 seats more
8) Gujarat they can get 2 seats more
9) Maharasthra they can get 10 seats more
10) MP they can get a seat more
11) Rajasthan they can get 4 seats more
12) Delhi they can get 3 seats more
If all the above happens then BJP will end up with 193 seats and still short by 79 seats. Where will they get those 79 seats from is the big question.
The problem with BJP is that it is not pan India present. In the following states they have no presence - West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Kerala. These four states constitute 143 seats. They will most likely not win even a single seat in these seats.
Only possible allies for them could be ADMK, MNS, TMC and TDP which will end them at 256 seats that is 16 seats short of majority. That should be manageable somehow.
Only if all the best case scenarios work out, they can get to form the Government. That is highly unlikely to happen. In case they are more than 30-40 seats short even after the above allies join them, then they will have to sacrifice Modi as he will not be acceptable to any other ally be it JDU/JDS/BSP/YSRC.
Best Case scenarios for Congress
Even though as per my projection Congress is expected to win 195 seats, what is the best case scenario for them?
1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 10 seats more
2) Tamil Nadu they can get 17 seats more by allying with DMDK and DMK
3) Andhra Pradesh get 17 seats more by allying with YSRC
If that happens they will end up with 239 seats. Where will they get those 33 seats from? I would say the following parties will be willing to support Congress
1) JDU with 21 seats
2) SP & BSP with 37 seats
3) RJD & LJP with 9 seats
4) JMM with 2 seats
5) Left might also consider supporting to keep the "communal BJP" out of power with their 24 seats
All that will take it to 289 seats and into simple majority.
Third Front Scenario
When both Congress and BJP don't get close to that 190+ mark. In case that happens, all permutations and combinations are possible and we will have 2 years of third front rule before we have another round of elections. Following people will be definitely staking claim Mulayam, Mayawati, Mamata, Jayalalitha & Nitish. We could also have a surprise candidate like a Naveen Patnaik who should be acceptable to a larger number of regional and left parties. Also read that Sharad Pawar is also keen to become PM.
What should BJP do now?
1) Get MNS into the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance which will help them give a good fight to the Congress/NCP alliance
2) Try to open their account in Tamil Nadu by forming an alliance with whatever parties are left out like PMK, MDMK, etc.
3) Form an alliance with the Gorkha groups in West Bengal and assure them of more powers (no state party will assure Gorkhas separate state) which might get them 2-3 seats.
4) Firm up the unofficial ties with JDS(BJP didn't contest the recent by polls and supported JDS instead) in Karnataka which might get them 5 more seats
5) Tie up with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Already he is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th position in the state after Congress/TRS/YSRC.
6) Tie up with PDP in J&K which can help them in getting couple of more seats
If you look at it, except MNS all other parties are in their wane and they are the only possible candidates for pre-poll alliances.
What should Congress do now?
1) Firm up an alliance with YSRC in Andhra
2) Firm up an alliance with DMK/DMDK in Tamil Nadu
3) Firm up an alliance with JDU in Bihar. In case he is not interested, then with RJD/LJP.
4) Spend lots of effort in West Bengal. Position themselves as the alternative to highly incompetent Mamata.
Possible candidates from Congress and BJP (other than Raga and Namo)
Strongly feel that Rahul Gandhi would like to have his own Manmohan Singh. The possible candidates
a) P Chidambaram - Who is known to be close to the Gandhi family and is generally acceptable to all communities (except probably someone in TN who doesn't like anyone from TN becoming a PM. Case in point GK Mopanar missing out in 1996)
b) Digvijay Singh - Highly unlikely as he is currently being sidelined in MP itself.
c) AK Antony - You will have another Mr Clean. Might not get the nod, as he will not be acceptable to the corporates
d) Sushilkumar Shinde - Possible if Congress wants to project a Dalit as a PM. However, his health is not good recently and that might go against him
As mentioned earlier, in case BJP is around 40 seats short of majority then they will be forced to sacrifice Namo. The possible candidates are
a) LK Advani - Don't discount the old man as yet. He will fancy his chances as he is now become more acceptable to guys like Nitish
b) Arun Jaitley/Sushma Swaraj - Both leaders of Opposition. Arun Jaitley is even postponed his becoming the President of BCCI to ensure he doesn't miss out on an opportunity to become the PM of the country
c) Shivraj Singh Chauhan - This guys has ambitions of becoming the PM. He will also win a 3rd term as CM this year. He is playing is cards well by positioning himself as all that Namo is not.
--------------------------------------------------------
With this I am concluding this series. Will write more about the elections as we get closer to May 2014.
I had missed Goa, the total seats in Goa is 2 and both should go to BJP
Total Seats
BJP - 158 (includes Shiv Sena, SAD, NPF)
Congress - 187(includes NC, SDF)
MNS - 2
JDU - 21
RJD - 6
LJP - 3
INLD - 1
JMM - 2
JDS - 3
Left - 24
BJD - 15
DMK - 8
ADMK - 29
TMC - 25
TDP - 7
YSRC - 15
SP - 20
BSP - 17
If DMK is included with Congress they will get to 195. Will need another 77 more seats for absolute majority.
BJP with a total of 158 will require 114 seats.
Best Case scenarios for BJP
Even though as per my projections BJP is expected to win 158, what is the best case scenario for them?
1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 2 seats more
2) Assam with the alliance with AGP they can get 2 seats more
3) Punjab they can get a seat more
4) Uttarakhand they can get 3 seats more
5) Bihar they can get 2 seats more
6) Haryana they can get 3 seats more
7) Karnataka they can get 2 seats more
8) Gujarat they can get 2 seats more
9) Maharasthra they can get 10 seats more
10) MP they can get a seat more
11) Rajasthan they can get 4 seats more
12) Delhi they can get 3 seats more
If all the above happens then BJP will end up with 193 seats and still short by 79 seats. Where will they get those 79 seats from is the big question.
The problem with BJP is that it is not pan India present. In the following states they have no presence - West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Kerala. These four states constitute 143 seats. They will most likely not win even a single seat in these seats.
Only possible allies for them could be ADMK, MNS, TMC and TDP which will end them at 256 seats that is 16 seats short of majority. That should be manageable somehow.
Only if all the best case scenarios work out, they can get to form the Government. That is highly unlikely to happen. In case they are more than 30-40 seats short even after the above allies join them, then they will have to sacrifice Modi as he will not be acceptable to any other ally be it JDU/JDS/BSP/YSRC.
Best Case scenarios for Congress
Even though as per my projection Congress is expected to win 195 seats, what is the best case scenario for them?
1) Uttar Pradesh they can get 10 seats more
2) Tamil Nadu they can get 17 seats more by allying with DMDK and DMK
3) Andhra Pradesh get 17 seats more by allying with YSRC
If that happens they will end up with 239 seats. Where will they get those 33 seats from? I would say the following parties will be willing to support Congress
1) JDU with 21 seats
2) SP & BSP with 37 seats
3) RJD & LJP with 9 seats
4) JMM with 2 seats
5) Left might also consider supporting to keep the "communal BJP" out of power with their 24 seats
All that will take it to 289 seats and into simple majority.
Third Front Scenario
When both Congress and BJP don't get close to that 190+ mark. In case that happens, all permutations and combinations are possible and we will have 2 years of third front rule before we have another round of elections. Following people will be definitely staking claim Mulayam, Mayawati, Mamata, Jayalalitha & Nitish. We could also have a surprise candidate like a Naveen Patnaik who should be acceptable to a larger number of regional and left parties. Also read that Sharad Pawar is also keen to become PM.
What should BJP do now?
1) Get MNS into the BJP/Shiv Sena alliance which will help them give a good fight to the Congress/NCP alliance
2) Try to open their account in Tamil Nadu by forming an alliance with whatever parties are left out like PMK, MDMK, etc.
3) Form an alliance with the Gorkha groups in West Bengal and assure them of more powers (no state party will assure Gorkhas separate state) which might get them 2-3 seats.
4) Firm up the unofficial ties with JDS(BJP didn't contest the recent by polls and supported JDS instead) in Karnataka which might get them 5 more seats
5) Tie up with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Already he is feeling the pinch of being relegated to the 4th position in the state after Congress/TRS/YSRC.
6) Tie up with PDP in J&K which can help them in getting couple of more seats
If you look at it, except MNS all other parties are in their wane and they are the only possible candidates for pre-poll alliances.
What should Congress do now?
1) Firm up an alliance with YSRC in Andhra
2) Firm up an alliance with DMK/DMDK in Tamil Nadu
3) Firm up an alliance with JDU in Bihar. In case he is not interested, then with RJD/LJP.
4) Spend lots of effort in West Bengal. Position themselves as the alternative to highly incompetent Mamata.
Possible candidates from Congress and BJP (other than Raga and Namo)
Strongly feel that Rahul Gandhi would like to have his own Manmohan Singh. The possible candidates
a) P Chidambaram - Who is known to be close to the Gandhi family and is generally acceptable to all communities (except probably someone in TN who doesn't like anyone from TN becoming a PM. Case in point GK Mopanar missing out in 1996)
b) Digvijay Singh - Highly unlikely as he is currently being sidelined in MP itself.
c) AK Antony - You will have another Mr Clean. Might not get the nod, as he will not be acceptable to the corporates
d) Sushilkumar Shinde - Possible if Congress wants to project a Dalit as a PM. However, his health is not good recently and that might go against him
As mentioned earlier, in case BJP is around 40 seats short of majority then they will be forced to sacrifice Namo. The possible candidates are
a) LK Advani - Don't discount the old man as yet. He will fancy his chances as he is now become more acceptable to guys like Nitish
b) Arun Jaitley/Sushma Swaraj - Both leaders of Opposition. Arun Jaitley is even postponed his becoming the President of BCCI to ensure he doesn't miss out on an opportunity to become the PM of the country
c) Shivraj Singh Chauhan - This guys has ambitions of becoming the PM. He will also win a 3rd term as CM this year. He is playing is cards well by positioning himself as all that Namo is not.
--------------------------------------------------------
With this I am concluding this series. Will write more about the elections as we get closer to May 2014.
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